Why Is Elon Musk Obsessed With Mars?
Does He Know Something We Don’t?
Starship
Among Elon Musk’s many ventures is SpaceX, which has a number of launch vehicles or rockets, the most powerful of which is Starship. This stainless-steel rocket has been specifically designed for trips to Mars, with the final aim of establishing a human colony there.
It uses methane as a fuel, which is not accidental — not only is it a relatively clean-burning fuel, with little soot, methane can be produced on Mars, allowing for Starships to refuel for the trips back to Earth.
And all this is not just a theoretical gleam in someone’s eye. At the time of writing, Starship has already had six test flights, with many more planned in 2025.
Mars
SpaceX’s intention is to start flights to Mars, initially with human astronauts, by 2029, followed by trips to ferry equipment and then colonists, every 26 months, i.e. coinciding with each Mars launch window, which will allow a Starship to reach Mars in around 115 days.
Why Mars? “We don’t want to be one of those single-planet species; we want to be a multi-planet species,” Elon Musk keeps on saying. In that case, Mars is an obvious target, as the only other terrestrial planet in our Solar System, Venus, is too hot. That doesn’t leave much of a choice.
One could also argue that, as Mars’ gravitational force is only 38% that of Earth, it would serve as a very convenient base for further forays into the outer Solar System, in particular the asteroid belt, which almost certainly has vast mining potential.
Colonies?
On the face of it, however, sending manned missions to Mars, given that unmanned missions powered by AI could do just as well, makes very little sense. Establishing human colonies on Mars? That seems to be a level of folly which is an order of magnitude worse.
But the main reason given by Elon Musk has nothing to do with economic potential or benefits, or indeed with becoming a multi-planetary species for the sake of it. In his world view, this is the only way to survive a doomsday scenario on Earth — for instance, if our planet is destroyed by an asteroid impact, or by nuclear war.
Human Extinction Events
As far as we know, in the last million years, based on the genetic evidence, there have been two major bottleneck events, when human populations dropped drastically, leaving humanity on the verge of extinction.
The first one occurred around nine hundred thousand years ago, when the human population (technically, only the breeding population) dropped to just over a thousand. A second bottleneck occurred around 70,000 years ago, with a drop of the human population to as low as a thousand.
While not much is known about the cause of the first bottleneck, the second one is theorized to have been caused by a large volcanic eruption which occurred 74,000 years ago at what is now Lake Toba in Sumatra.
If we imagine a similar scenario occurring today, say a super volcano eruption at Yellowstone in North America, the consequences would be horrendous. Virtually all human life in North America would be wiped out, temperatures would plummet worldwide because of the soot and dust, and billions of human beings would die from the direct as well as long-term effects of this eruption.
But here’s the thing: Even in such a worst-case scenario, Earth would still be a far more habitable planet than Mars. Its gravity would remain intact, the oxygen levels would still be fine, and if our hunter-gathering ancestors could survive Toba, then we, in the billions, with our modern-day technology, would have no issues surviving as a species.
What about an asteroid impact, such as the one that killed off the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and led to the extinction of 75% of all species? An event like that could potentially wipe out all human life.
On the other hand, with our telescopes, we would have a warning of literally decades before the asteroid hits; more than enough, with the current pace of technological development, to be able to divert or destroy the asteroid.
Nuclear war? Same argument. Billions would die, life would not be pleasant for those who survive, but humanity would not become extinct, and the Earth that would remain would still be far more hospitable for human life than Mars can ever be.
Whither Earth?
Everything has an opportunity cost. If we seriously consider the cost of colonizing Mars, and then consider, as an alternative, the use of these resources to solve problems on Earth, then it makes far more sense to use those resources into improving our planet.
So why is Elon Musk so obsessed with Mars? The only conceivable reason, assuming this is not just for reasons of vanity, is that he is worried about something more than just a volcano or a nuclear war. Something that would be so catastrophic that it would not only wipe out all human life on Earth, it would utterly, completely destroy the planet.
Which begs the question: Does he know something the rest of us don’t?
